DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/18 10:54
All Grains Lower at Midday
Trade is lower at midday led by soybeans.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 200. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
mixed with gold up $2.60.
Corn trade is 3 cents to 4 cents lower with trade grinding along support
with upside momentum slowing with harvest pressure returning to the market
along with spillover trade from the outside markets. The harvest pace should
begin to build again the next few days with the more open weather expected to
persist into next week. Ethanol margins are under pressure again with the
energy complex retreating and stocks continuing to build and futures testing
the $1.25 area. Corn basis should start to see renewed pressure with better
harvest pace. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 382,500 metric tons
(mt). On the December chart support is at the 100-day at $3.71, which we are
just below at midday then the 20-day at $3.67. Resistance is at the $3.78 1/2
September-October high reached on Monday.
Soybean trade is 15 cents to 17 cents lower with harvest pressure and
outside market concerns encouraging liquidation this morning. Meal is $5 to $6
lower and oil is 30 cents to 40 points lower. Soybean basis will likely see
pressure again later in the week as farmers get back into the fields. Crop
losses from the weather will likely take a while for trade to sort out, and
will likely trigger volatile trade at times. Crush margins remain strong in the
near term. South America should continue to see fairly normal early season
progress in the near term with good moisture with the biggest concerns in
Argentina. The weekly export sales were weak with 293,600 mb of beans, 104,100
mt of meal, and 26,600 mt of oil. On the November chart support is the 10-day
at $8.71, which we are testing at midday with the 20-day at $8.62 below that,
with major resistance the 100-day at $8.85 3/4 and minor resistance at the
recent high at $8.92.
Wheat trade is 3 cents to 6 cents lower with trade following the row crops
lower after some early buying. The U.S. dollar has jumped back above 95 with
more flight-to-safety trade. Winter wheat planting is ongoing with better
conditions in North America than Europe with plenty of moisture on the plains.
Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with some relief in the drier
areas. MATIF milling wheat is flat to lower. Jordan secured Black Sea origin
wheat on their tender, but the U.S. is getting more competitive. The weekly
export sales are improved at 476,000 mt. On the December Kansas City chart, we
are below at the 10-day and 20-day at $5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band
support at $5.10. Resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at $5.32.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.